Four Steps for Making Decisions in the Face of Uncertainty

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All climbers face fear. Whether pursuing a peak, climbing a rock wall or ascending a waterfall there is always the reality that the higher you are, the further you can fall. The best and safest climbers have a healthy relationship with this fear. They feel it; yet, it doesn’t control them.

It’s dangerous to go to extremes. Climbers who don’t feel fear take unnecessary risks with their own safety and the safety of others. Climbers who are controlled by fear also create risk and danger for themselves and others.

Being a leader is like being a climber. When we talk about risky leadership, we tend to think of the reckless, hasty and irresponsible decisions.

However, there’s another kind of risky leader who is probably even more common and may create more harm. This is the fear-driven leader. A common, but not exclusive, way this manifests is through freezing – not making decisions.

What many leaders fear is a lack of approval, or lack of support, from those they lead. I’ve worked with many executive and political leaders who are paralyzed in their decision-making because of this crippling fear. What’s ironic is the very thing these leaders are afraid of doing is often the exact thing their staff or constituents most want them to do.

It is fear, on the part of leaders, that makes it difficult to believe that agreement exists. So, many times leaders and followers agree with each other; but, at the same time, don’t believe agreement exists. I often serve as mediator between the two to help them see that they already agree.

What can a leader do to make decisions, despite fear?

1. Pursue sound and current data.

Most “data” or information comes from the media, gossip or anecdotes. It is rare that decisions are made from reliable, tested sources of information that haven’t gone stale.

Invest in gathering good information. Surveys and focus groups can be good methods. For complex or emotionally charged issues, it is often worth contracting with someone who knows how to craft good questions, identify a representative sample, or facilitate meaningful conversations.

2. Develop an objective way to make decisions.

A proven way to simplify decision-making is to decide on the criteria in advance. There are many approaches for doing this. Two ways I find helpful:

  • Clarify Process: I was conducting a feasibility study and strategic planning process for a private-public partnership. We ran into questions about the community’s desire for a set of services. That question could’ve been debated forever. Instead, we adopted a process for answering the question: I would conduct focus groups within the community. The community members’ responses would serve as our answer. This ended the debate and allowed us to continue with what has become a highly successful program.
  • Clarify Priorities: Continuing the example above, our second step was to identify the underlying concerns or desires of all the major players or key stakeholders. There are many tools for doing this. Sometimes just gathering the list is sufficiently helpful. Other times, ranking priorities or weighting each item on the list is beneficial.

However you go about it, developing an objective process for decision-making saves an enormous amount of time and emotional energy while providing what a leader needs to make confident decisions.

3. Explain the “Why?” and the Value.

Many leaders experience resistance; not because of their decision, but instead because their decision wasn’t explained. These leaders make the mistake of either explaining nothing or explaining, at length, how the decision was made. The problem is: most people don’t care how the decision was made.

It’s like a driver asking an engineer about a bridge. The engineer wants to talk about the design challenges. The driver just wants to know where the bridge begins and ends and whether it will shorten the trip?

If leaders take the time to explain why a decision was made and outline the benefits, most people are satisfied.

4. Lead into the unknown.

It’s not leadership to make decisions in a completely known, safe environment. That’s management. And good management is important. However, when facing an unknown, leadership is necessary.

The best leaders don’t try to guess the right future. They create the right future.

Leaders have to be willing to gather the best information they can, develop a process for making decisions, communicate the “why” and the value of their decisions and then act.

Is there a decision that you’ve been putting off? What will you do next?

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