I get to work with clients in many different industries and geographies every year. This experience cultivates a unique perspective for me. I learn a lot about the opportunities and challenges specific businesses, industries, or geographies face. But I also learn which ones are common.

I’d love to be able to predict the future. But I can’t. However, by looking for commonalities and trends, I can make pretty strong forecasts of what should be expected in the coming year.

And so, without further ado, here is my forecast for 2024. These are the common issues that will present both a challenge and an opportunity to most organizations:

1. Staffing will remain a challenge: Whoever wins the staffing game will win. 
2. The Silver Tsunami is in full effect: Whoever prepares for leadership transition will survive. 
3. Uncertainty will be a distraction: Confidence is critical for resilience and growth. 
4. AI cannot be ignored: Skynet isn’t quite here, but change is. Prepare for it.
5. Cybersecurity is critical: Digital darkness is getting smarter, sneakier, and more aggressive.

1. Staffing will remain a challenge: Staffing shortages are the new normal. They are likely to stay with us for the foreseeable future. There are many reasons for this. But the primary driver is a shift in the demographics of the United States (as well as most developed countries): People aren’t having kids like they used to and haven’t for a while. As Baby Boomers increasingly exit the workforce (see below) there aren’t enough younger workers to fill all the staffing needs. This is especially true when looking for experienced people with solid management or technical skills.

The Opportunity: Any employer who excels at recruiting, training, and retaining their workforce will have a competitive edge – simply because they’ll be able to deliver goods and services that others won’t. It will require all three (recruiting, training, and retaining) to succeed. Just one won’t cut it.

Recommended strategies:

• Innovative recruitment strategies: Explore unconventional methods to attract and retain talent.
• Emphasize employee development: Invest in training and career growth to build your workforce.
• Build a ‘magnetic’ culture: Create an environment that naturally attracts and keeps top talent.
• Become a lean, mean fighting machine: Become efficient in administration and operations.

2. The Silver Tsunami is in full effect: 60% of owners and executives are Baby Boomers in their late 50s to late 70s. Surveys show that most hope to exit or retire within 2-3 years. Gen Xers are ‘next-in-line’, but they are the smallest generation in terms of population. They don’t have the raw numbers to fill all the gaps left by Baby Boomers.

Also, most successions fail. One-third of successions within Fortune 200 companies were described as having failed. This jumps to two-thirds for small and medium-sized businesses. The reasons are complicated but can be boiled down to: Inadequate preparation by both the outgoing leader and the organization as well as inadequate support for the incoming leader. In short…leaders routinely underestimate what it takes for a successful succession.

The Opportunity: Most organizations are facing succession. Being one of the few that is putting adequate energy into preparing for it will give you a competitive edge.

Recommended strategies: 

• Succession planning: Actively prepare for leadership transitions throughout your organization.
• Mentoring and knowledge transfer: Encourage and support experienced leaders to actively pass on their expertise to the next generation.
• Recruit for the leadership you need, not the leadership you had: Don’t try to replace your current leader. Find a leader who can take you where you are trying to go.

3. Uncertainty will be a distraction: 2024 is a presidential election year in the US. There are hot wars, proxy wars, and cold wars. The economy is doing strange things that no one understands. Many people feel uncertain and distracted by these issues and others. This absorbs bandwidth, reduces creativity, and encourages reactive decision-making.

The Opportunity: Leadership is best expressed and most needed in uncertainty. (If everything is certain, all that is needed is management.) Steady, confident leaders can inspire confidence in their teams, clients, and partners.

Recommend strategies:

• Promote resilience: Acknowledge challenges and failures. Encourage and model the ability to grow, adapt, and learn from them.
• Foster clear communication: Ensure transparent and frequent communication to maintain focus and direction. Secrets usually do more damage than good.
• Encourage decisive action: Empower your leaders to make confident decisions amidst uncertainty. Use your organizational values, vision, and core priorities to create a decision-making framework.
• Do what you say you will do: You need to be reliable and able to be counted on. A leader’s steadiness and dependability will calm and focus those around them.

4. Pay attention to AI: The advancements around AI have developed a momentum and speed that no one knows how to relate to. Some of the best and brightest are excited about this. Others are deeply concerned. The only thing they agree on is that AI will generate fundamental changes.

The Opportunity: AI can be a powerful tool if applied correctly. Staffing challenges (above) will drive more companies to use AI to create efficiency so that fewer staff are needed. AI can help you move actual staff away from routine data management and routine tasks into responsibilities that require higher-level skills and judgment. Smaller companies will now have access to automation, analytical tools, and resources that used to be only within reach of large companies.

Recommended strategies:

• Embrace technological adaptation: Be open to integrating AI into business processes for efficiency.
• Continuous learning and upskilling: Many jobs previously held by ‘knowledge workers’ will be absorbed by AI. Prepare your workforce and business strategies for the evolving technological landscape. 
• Ethical & human considerations: AI doesn’t understand ethics, can’t make discerning or nuanced leadership decisions, isn’t able to take personal situations into account, isn’t able to truly care for someone, and so on. Build a team that can, and you’ll be AI resilient.

5. Cybersecurity is critical: Between AI and state actors (Russia, China, etc) getting involved in creating economic disruption, cybersecurity has become more important and complicated than just installing anti-virus software on your computers.

The Opportunity: We can see potential problems now. Don’t wait to address it. Develop a robust cybersecurity strategy and policies to ensure you avoid costly losses, downtime, stolen institutional knowledge, or secrets.

Strategies to consider: 

• Prioritize data protection: Implement robust security measures to safeguard organizational and customer data.
• Regular training and awareness: Educate employees about cybersecurity threats and prevention techniques.
• Stay ahead of threats: Invest in advanced security technologies and stay informed.

Wrap up

2024 provides enormous opportunities for good leaders who build strong cultures and remain focused on their priorities while staying aware of threats (but not being driven by them). The more uncertainty there is and the faster things change, the more important it is to make good decisions on time.

That’s the domain of leadership. Companies led by attentive and active leaders who build strong teams and cultures will increasingly outperform everyone else.

Would you like to ensure that your (or your team’s) ability to lead is up to the challenge? Contact me to explore how I can help.

Take good care,

Christian